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dc.contributor.authorCateia, Júlio Vicente, 1989-pt_BR
dc.contributor.otherCarvalho, Terciane Sabadini, 1984-pt_BR
dc.contributor.otherBittencourt, Maurício Vaz Lobo, 1970-pt_BR
dc.contributor.otherUniversidade Federal do Paraná. Setor de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas. Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Econômicopt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-17T17:35:05Z
dc.date.available2020-09-17T17:35:05Z
dc.date.issued2020pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1884/67622
dc.descriptionOrientadora: Terciane Sabadini Carvalhopt_BR
dc.descriptionCoorientador: Maurício Vaz Lobo Bittencourtpt_BR
dc.descriptionTese (doutorado) - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Setor de Ciências Sociais Aplicadas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Desenvolvimento Econômico. Defesa : Curitiba, 20/02/2020pt_BR
dc.descriptionInclui referências: p.182-203pt_BR
dc.description.abstractResumo: A Guiné-Bissau enfrenta desafios de desenvolvimento socioeconômico desde que se tornou independe no final da década de 1970. Um desses desafios diz respeito a encontrar uma opção de política que permita ao país explorar suas vantagens comparativas e reduzir a pobreza. Este estudo utiliza um modelo dinâmico recursivo de equilíbrio geral computável para analisar os efeitos a longo prazo das seguintes três opções políticas de desenvolvimento neste país pequeno e extremamente pobre com a economia baseada na agrícola: comércio, produtividade e investimentos em infraestrutura. Essas políticas foram avaliadas em diferentes cenários. Para o eixo comercial, temos o cenário 1, que consiste em simular choques negativos nas tarifas de importação e o cenário 2, que representa a redução dos impostos de exportação. O cenário de produtividade representa um choque estimado de produtividade para os setores selecionados, enquanto o cenário de investimentos em infraestrutura é a simulação de novos investimentos públicos em infraestrutura e seu mecanismo de financiamento. Os choques negativos nos impostos à exportação afetaram positivamente a produção geral, as exportações, o investimento e o consumo real do governo, enquanto os cortes nas tarifas de importação têm efeitos opostos. Ambas as políticas comerciais aumentam a renda das famílias rurais e urbanas, com impactos mais fortes para os mais pobres rurais. Nossos resultados sugerem a relevância da riqueza acumulada na mitigação da pobreza a longo prazo, pois ela desempenha um papel importante no consumo das famílias. Observamos um impacto positivo de choques de produtividade e investimentos em infraestrutura no nível de atividade econômica, produtividade agregada e repercussões setoriais. Para a produtividade, observamos que os ganhos das famílias rurais decorrem do aumento da produção nos setores agrícolas, onde encontram suas fontes de renda. Para os investimentos em infraestrutura, descobrimos que os esquemas de financiamento são importantes na determinação desses resultados, pois também contribuem para aumentar a renda e o consumo das famílias urbanas e rurais. Além disso, embora todas as políticas avaliadas mostrem o potencial de reduzir a pobreza, foi a política de produtividade que apresentou os melhores resultados, porque aumentou mais a renda e o consumo das famílias e reduziu mais desigualdades de renda. Palavras-chave: Comércio. Produtividade. Infraestrutura. Guiné-Bissau. Modelo CGE. ABSTRACT Guinea-Bissau has been facing socioeconomic development challenges since it became in the late 1970s. One of these challenges concerns to find a policy option that allows the country to explore its comparative advantages and to reduce poverty. This study uses a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to analysis the long-term effects of three development policies in this extremely poor small country with the agriculturebased economy: trade, productivity, and infrastructure investments. These policies were evaluated in different scenarios. For the trade axis, we have scenario 1 which consists of simulating negative shocks on import tariffs, and scenario 2 representing export taxes reduction. Productivity scenario represents an estimated productivity shock for the selected sectors, while infrastructure investments scenarios is the simulation of new public investments in infrastructure and its funding mechanism. Negative export taxes shocks affected positively the overall output, exports, investment, and real government consumption, while import tariff cuts have opposite effects. Both trade policies increase rural and urban households' income, with stronger impacts for rural poorer ones. Our results suggest the relevance of accumulated wealth in mitigate long-term poverty as it plays an important role in households' consumption. We observe positive impact of productivity shocks and infrastructure investments on the level of economic activity, aggregate productivity, and sectoral spillovers. For the productivity, we found that gains of rural households stemming from increasing production in the agricultural sectors where they find their sources of income. For the infrastructure investments, we find that funding schemes are important in determining these outcomes as they also contribute to increase both urban and rural households' income and consumption. Moreover, although all the evaluated policies show the potential to reduce poverty, it was the productivity policy that provided the best results, because it increased most the households' income and consumption, and further decreased income inequalities. Keywords: Trade. Productivity. infrastructure. Guinea-Bissau. CGE model.pt_BR
dc.description.abstractAbstract: Guinea-Bissau has been facing socioeconomic development challenges since it became in the late 1970s. One of these challenges concerns to find a policy option that allows the country to explore its comparative advantages and to reduce poverty. This study uses a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to analysis the long-term effects of three development policies in this extremely poor small country with the agriculturebased economy: trade, productivity, and infrastructure investments. These policies were evaluated in different scenarios. For the trade axis, we have scenario 1 which consists of simulating negative shocks on import tariffs, and scenario 2 representing export taxes reduction. Productivity scenario represents an estimated productivity shock for the selected sectors, while infrastructure investments scenarios is the simulation of new public investments in infrastructure and its funding mechanism. Negative export taxes shocks affected positively the overall output, exports, investment, and real government consumption, while import tariff cuts have opposite effects. Both trade policies increase rural and urban households' income, with stronger impacts for rural poorer ones. Our results suggest the relevance of accumulated wealth in mitigate long-term poverty as it plays an important role in households' consumption. We observe positive impact of productivity shocks and infrastructure investments on the level of economic activity, aggregate productivity, and sectoral spillovers. For the productivity, we found that gains of rural households stemming from increasing production in the agricultural sectors where they find their sources of income. For the infrastructure investments, we find that funding schemes are important in determining these outcomes as they also contribute to increase both urban and rural households' income and consumption. Moreover, although all the evaluated policies show the potential to reduce poverty, it was the productivity policy that provided the best results, because it increased most the households' income and consumption, and further decreased income inequalities. Keywords: Trade. Productivity. infrastructure. Guinea-Bissau. CGE model.pt_BR
dc.format.extent242 p. : il. (algumas color).pt_BR
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfpt_BR
dc.languagePortuguêspt_BR
dc.subjectDesenvolvimento econômicopt_BR
dc.subjectGuine-Bissaupt_BR
dc.subjectCrescimento e Desenvolvimento Econômicopt_BR
dc.subjectPobrezapt_BR
dc.titleDevelopment under improved infrastructure, productivity and trade policies : evidence for Guinea-Bissaupt_BR
dc.typeTese Digitalpt_BR


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