A matriz de competitividade do setor florestal brasileiro no período de 1995 a 2011

Abstract

Resumo: Este trabalho foi realizado com o intuito de analisar e compreender a dinamica das exportacoes e a competitividade do setor de base florestal brasileiro e seus principais produtos, entre os anos 1995 e 2011. Os dados empregados nas analises foram series historicas do valor exportado do setor em nivel nacional e mundial. As metodologias utilizadas para lograr os objetivos especificos foram estatistica descritiva da evolucao das exportacoes do setor e da balanca comercial, razao de concentracao (CRK), taxa de crescimento (Log-lin), indice de vantagem comparativa revelada (IVCR) e matrizes de competitividade. De maneira geral a maioria dos 22 produtos analisados apresentou aumento no valor exportado, ao longo do periodo. Para o SBFB, como um todo, tambem foi observado expansao do valor exportado, e quando comparado ao SBFM, o nacional demonstrou crescimento, proporcionalmente, maior. Entretanto, como as exportacoes totais nacionais e mundiais cresceram mais que as do setor, a capacidade competitiva, analisada por meio do IVCR, apresentou apenas 10 produtos com variacao positiva do valor do indice, quando comparados no inicio e no final da serie. Destes dez, somente seis sao considerados de maior valor agregado. A observacao das matrizes sugere que houve variacao de posicionamento dos produtos nos quadrantes, entre os subperiodos. De forma geral, as matrizes referentes ao subperiodo dos anos 2000 a 2005 apontaram melhorias de posicionamento para os produtos quando comparadas com as matrizes de 1995 a 2000. Ja no ultimo (2005 a 2010), grande parte destes bens deslocaram-se para posicoes menos competitivas nas matrizes. Palavras-chave: exportacoes florestais, indice de vantagem comparativa revelada, matriz de competitividade

Abstract: The objective of this study was to analyze and understand the exports' dynamics and the competitiveness of the Brazilian forestry sector and its main products, in the period of 1995 to 2011. The analyzed data were historical data series of exported values of the national and international forestry sector. The methods that were used in order to achieve the specific objectives were descriptive statistics of the evolution of the sector's exports and of the commercial balance, concentration ratio (CR) growth rates (log-lin), revealed comparative advantage index (RCA) and competitiveness matrices. In general, most part of the 22 studied products presented an increase in exported value throughout the analyzed period. The Brazilian forestry sector also experienced an expansion of the exported value, and when compared to the world's forestry sector, the BFS's growth was proportionally larger. However, as the national's and international's total exports grew more than the forestry sectors', only 10 products had a positive competitive capacity, measured through the RCA and compared in the beginning and in the end of the time series. Out of these ten, only six are higher added value products. The analysis of the competitiveness matrices suggests that there was a great positioning variation of the products in the different quadrants, throughout the analyzed period. As a whole, the second period's matrices (2000-2005) presented positioning improvements when compared to the first period's (1995-2000). On the other hand, during the last period (2005-2010) a big part of these products shifted to less competitive positions on the matrices. Key words: forestry exports, revealed comparative advantage index, competitiveness matrix.